Sports Betting and Trading Strategies

In this section we provide you with a list of betting and trading strategies that are tested on historical data. We describe the idea behind the betting strategy and use data from a bookmaker or betting exchange to back test the strategy. We hope that with this approach we can help you to increase profits with your betting and trading activities.

Football

Using Machine Learning to Predict Football Matches

Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence are powerful tools to learn from large amounts of data and help to make better decisions. In this article I would like to train a machine learning model that is capable of predicting the outcome of football matches.

Backtest Results:
Backtest Period: 08 Apr 2019 to 12 May 2019
Total Loss: -1.71 Points
Average Loss: -1.51 Points per Month
Number of bets: 56
Max. Drawdown of 9.51 Points during 22 Days

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Football

Dixon-Coles Model for Football Predictions

A betting strategy to predict the outcome of football matches based on the Dixon-Coles model is evaluated on historical data using Python code. The Dixon-Coles model to predict the outcome of football matches goes back to a scientific publication in the year of 1997. Back then Dixon and Coles, the authors of the paper, published a mathematical model that would allow to predict the result of football (soccer) matches.

Backtest Results:
Backtest Period: 03 Nov 2018 to 12 May 2019
Total Loss: -26.93 Points
Average Loss: -4.25 Points per Month
Number of bets: 280
Max. Drawdown of 37.27 Points during 88 Days

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Horse Racing

Lay the Favourite in Horse Racing

How profitable is it to bet against favourites in horse races? This strategy is about laying favourites in horse racing markets on a betting exchange.

Backtest Results:
Backtest Period: 31 Dec 2012 to 08 Oct 2020
Total Loss: -433.10 Points
Average Loss: -4.58 Points per Month
Number of bets: 76,944
Max. Drawdown of 539.66 Points during 2,280 Days

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Horse Racing

Back the Favourite in Horse Races

How often does the favourite win a horse race? And is it profitable to back the favourite in each race? With a simple backtest we investigate this simple approach on historical data.

Backtest Results:
Backtest Period: 31 Dec 2012 to 08 Oct 2020
Total Loss: -438.51 Points
Average Loss: -4.64 Points per Month
Number of bets: 76,944
Max. Drawdown of 666.36 Points during 2,423 Days

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Horse Racing

Lay The Field

The "Lay the field" betting system is a very popular betting strategy which involves laying multiple selections in a betting exchange market. Typically the lay bets are placed at certain thresholds on all selections of a betting market. If a large enough amount of bets get matched you end with some profit.

In this article we describe the "Lay the field" strategy in more detail and present a backtest on historical data.

Backtest Results:
Backtest Period: 01 Jan 2014 to 06 Jul 2020
Total Loss: -19,282.98 Points
Average Loss: -243.27 Points per Month
Number of bets: 108,323
Max. Drawdown of 19,282.97 Points during 2,378 Days

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Propose a Strategy

Do you know a quantitative betting or trading strategy that we should cover here? Please do not hesitate to contact us - we are always looking forward to receive input on strategies with the goal to become the largest database of betting and trading strategies.

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