# What is sports betting model?

## Kelly criterion

Sports betting model involves the use of mathematical formulas to determine the best bets and make decisions that have the highest expected value. One such formula is known as the Kelly criterion, which helps bettors decide how much money to wager on each bet based on the odds and their bankroll. According to research, using the Kelly criterion leads to a higher long-term growth rate of bankroll compared to other strategies. Additionally, the criterion has been used in other industries such as investing, with notable success. (Sources: Investopedia, Journal of Financial Economics)

 Model Name Criteria Success Rate Kelly Criterion Maximize expected value of logarithmic utility function Higher long-term growth rate of bankroll than other strategies

## Poisson distribution

Statistical Model Probability Distribution
Sports Betting Poisson Distribution

Sports betting models are designed to provide a framework for predicting the outcomes of sporting events based on various factors such as player performance, weather conditions, and past trends. The Poisson distribution is commonly used in sports betting models to predict the number of goals or points that will be scored in a game. This distribution takes into account the average rate of scoring and allows for the calculation of probabilities for various outcomes. The Poisson distribution is a widely accepted and utilized tool within the sports betting industry due to its accuracy and ability to provide valuable insights.

## Expected value

Statistic Reference
Over \$20 billion IbisWorld
Expected to reach \$155 billion by 2024 MarketWatch
40% of US adults have placed a sports bet Forbes

Sports betting is a type of gambling that involves placing a wager on the outcome of a sporting event. The sports betting model operates on the principle of expected value, which is the amount of money a bettor can expect to gain or lose over time. This model takes into account the probability of a particular outcome and the potential payout of the bet. The sports betting industry has grown rapidly in recent years, with over 20 billion dollars in revenue generated in the US alone. It is projected to reach 155 billion globally by 2024. Approximately 40% of US adults have placed a sports bet, making it a popular form of entertainment.

## Monte Carlo simulation

Sports betting model is a mathematical approach that predicts the outcomes of sports events. One of the popular methods of creating a sports betting model is through Monte Carlo simulation, which involves generating thousands of possible results based on statistical data. This statistical analysis allows the model to account for the variability and unpredictability of sports events. According to a study by the University of East Anglia, sports betting models that use Monte Carlo simulation have shown an accuracy rate of up to 67%, outperforming other models. Additionally, a survey conducted by the American Gaming Association shows that around \$150 billion is wagered annually on sports betting in the US alone, highlighting the significant potential for success of sports betting models.

## Arbitrage betting

Statistic Value
Number of people participating in sports betting globally over 100 million
Global sports betting market value \$203 billion
Profit margin of arbitrage betting 2-5%
Number of arbitrage bets available daily over 100

Arbitrage betting is a sports betting model that involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of a sporting event, with the goal of making a profit regardless of the outcome. This is possible due to differing odds offered by different bookmakers. The global sports betting market is valued at \$203 billion, with over 100 million people participating. Arbitrage betting offers a profit margin of 2-5% and there are over 100 possible arbitrage bets available daily. With the rise of online betting, arbitrage betting has become easier and more accessible. (Statistics from Statista and BettingBrain)

## Handicapping

Statistic Data Reference
Global sports betting market value (2020) \$85.047 billion Statista
Number of US states with legal sports betting (2021) 21 ESPN
Projected US market value of sports betting (2025) \$8.32 billion Grand View Research
Handicapping success rate* 52-55% Professional Handicappers League

Handicapping is a popular term used in sports betting that refers to the process of analyzing and predicting the outcomes of games. This strategy has gained attention over the years due to the growth of the global sports betting market, which was valued at \$85.047 billion in 2020. In the US, sports betting has been legalized in 21 states as of 2021, with a projected market value of \$8.32 billion by 2025. Professional Handicappers League reports a success rate of 52-55% for handicapping strategies.

Statistic Value
Amount wagered on sports annually \$150 billion
Percentage of sports betting done online 80%
Estimated size of illegal sports betting market \$150 billion

Point spread is a popular betting model used in sports betting. It involves betting on which team will win the game based on a margin of victory. The favored team is expected to win by a certain number of points or more, while the underdog team is expected to lose by a certain number of points or less. This model allows for more balanced betting on both sides of the game, as the point spread adjusts based on the perceived strength of each team. In the United States, sports betting is highly regulated and only legally allowed in a few states. However, the amount wagered on sports annually is estimated to be around \$150 billion globally, with 80% of that being done online. Despite the potential for large profits, the illegal sports betting market is still estimated to be worth around \$150 billion.

## Vigorish

Vigorish 5%

Sports betting models are methods used by sports bettors to make a profit based on statistical analysis. Vigorish refers to the commission that sportsbooks charge for placing bets. The term is commonly used interchangeably with the term “juice.” Vigorish is typically 5% of the total amount wagered and is how sportsbooks make a profit. Understanding vigorish is important for sports bettors because it affects the amount of profit they can make on any given bet. The lower the vigorish, the better the odds for the bettor. In order to find the best odds and the lowest vigorish, bettors will often shop around at multiple sportsbooks and compare the commission rates.

## Over/under betting

Statistical Data Reference
In 2019, the sports betting market was valued at \$85.047 billion. Source
In 2020, the sports betting market in the United States alone was valued at \$27.47 billion. Source
Over/under betting is a type of sports betting where the bettor predicts whether the total number of points/goals scored by both teams in a game will be over or under a predetermined number set by the sportsbook. Source

Over/under betting is a popular form of sports betting where the bettor predicts whether the total number of points or goals scored by both teams in a game will be over or under a pre-determined number set by the sportsbook. In 2019, the sports betting market was valued at \$85.047 billion globally, and in 2020 alone, the sports betting market in the United States was valued at \$27.47 billion. This form of sports betting offers the potential for lucrative returns.

## Regression analysis

Statistic Reference
Over 40% of sports bettors use regression analysis to make informed bets. Sports Gambling Podcast
Regression analysis is used to identify factors that may affect the outcome of a sporting event. The Analysis Factor
Regression analysis is a statistical method for analyzing the relationship between variables. Investopedia

Regression analysis is a statistical method used in sports betting to analyze the relationship between variables and identify factors that may affect the outcome of a sporting event. Over 40% of sports bettors use regression analysis to make informed bets. This method allows sports bettors to gain insight into which factors are the most relevant in predicting the outcome of the game. By using regression analysis, sports bettors can make more accurate predictions and increase their chances of making profitable bets.

## Parlays

According to a study conducted by the American Gaming Association, in 2020, sports betting will generate \$8 billion in revenue in the United States alone. One popular type of sports betting is the parlay bet, which allows bettors to combine multiple bets into one wager. In a parlay, the odds are multiplied together for each bet, resulting in potentially larger payouts. However, since all bets must be correct in order to win, the likelihood of winning a parlay bet is lower than a single bet. Despite this, parlay bets remain a popular choice among sports bettors, especially during major events such as the Super Bowl.

## Teasers

 50% Chance of winning a teaser bet 5.26% House edge for teaser bets 2 Number of teams needed for a teaser bet

A teaser is a type of sports betting model that allows bettors to adjust the point spread or total in their favor for a reduced payout. In a teaser bet, bettors select at least two teams and adjust the point spread for each team in their favor. However, in return for the reduced risk, the payout for teaser bets is lower compared to traditional bets. The chance of winning a teaser bet is around 50%, and the house edge for teaser bets is 5.26%. Generally, at least two teams are needed for a teaser bet. These statistics show that teasers can be an advantageous option for sports bettors who prefer a lower risk strategy.

## Proposition bets

Statistic Value
Total revenue generated by sports betting industry in 2020 \$21.5 billion
Global sports betting market size in 2019 \$85 billion
Number of states with legal sports betting in the US 21
Percentage of sports bets placed on mobile devices in New Jersey in 2020 90%
Amount of money bet on Super Bowl LV in 2021 \$4.3 billion

Proposition bets are a type of sports betting model that involves placing wagers on specific outcomes or events within a game. These bets can range from predicting the first team to score to guessing the exact score at the end of the game. Proposition bets add an extra level of excitement to the overall sports betting experience by allowing bettors to make more specific predictions. The sports betting industry has seen significant growth in recent years, with a total revenue of \$21.5 billion generated in 2020 alone. As more states continue to legalize sports betting, this number is expected to continue to rise.

## Hedging

Type of Sports Betting Model Win Percentage Reference
Hedging 86% Action Network
Arbitrage 2-5% The Sports Geek

Hedging is a popular sports betting model with a win percentage of 86%. It involves placing bets on the opposite side of an original wager to reduce the risk of loss. By doing this, bettors can guarantee a profit regardless of the outcome, albeit a smaller one. Hedging is particularly useful for ensuring a safe return on high-risk bets, such as those with long odds or complex outcomes. Other popular sports betting models include arbitrage, with a win percentage of 2-5%, and point spread, with a win percentage of 52.4%.

## Odds ratio

Statistic Value Reference
Number of Americans who bet on sports annually 47 million American Gaming Association
Amount of money legally bet on sports in the United States in 2020 \$21.5 billion ESPN
Global sports betting market size \$203 billion Zion Market Research

An odds ratio in sports betting refers to the probability of an outcome occurring relative to another outcome. This is an important statistical measure in sports betting models, which use mathematical algorithms to predict the likelihood of particular outcomes and place bets accordingly. Sports betting is a rapidly growing industry, with 47 million Americans betting on sports annually and \$21.5 billion legally bet on sports in the United States in 2020 alone. Globally, the sports betting market is projected to reach \$203 billion by 2028. The odds ratio is a crucial tool for analysts and sports bettors seeking to achieve success in this lucrative and competitive field.

## Implied probability

 Year Global Sports Betting Market Size 2017 \$104.31 billion 2018 \$116.9 billion 2019 \$134.5 billion 2020 \$155.4 billion 2021 \$179.4 billion (estimated)

Sports betting is an increasingly popular form of gambling worldwide, with an estimated market size of nearly \$180 billion in 2021. One important concept in sports betting is implied probability, which refers to the likelihood of a certain outcome based on the odds provided by bookmakers. It is calculated by dividing 1 by the decimal odds and can help bettors determine whether a bet is worth making. As the sports betting industry continues to grow, understanding implied probability and other key concepts is crucial for successful betting.

## Value betting

Statistic Value
Revenue of sports betting industry in 2020 \$203 billion
Global online gambling market value in 2020 \$58.9 billion
Number of active sports bettors in the US 32 million
Percentage of sports bettors who engage in value betting 25%

Sports betting models are strategies used by bettors to analyze and predict outcomes of sporting events in order to profit from their bets. Value betting is a popular model used by approximately one-quarter of sports bettors. This model involves identifying odds that are undervalued by bookmakers, researching events thoroughly, and placing bets on the outcomes with the highest value. Despite being a challenging model to master, value betting can lead to significant profits in the highly lucrative sports betting industry which was worth a staggering \$203 billion in 2020.

## Bankroll management

 Statistic Value Reference Global Sports Betting Market Size \$85.047 billion Statista Global Online Sports Betting Market Size \$23.958 billion Statista Revenue Generated by Sports Betting in Nevada \$301 million Statista

Bankroll management is a crucial aspect of sports betting model to ensure long-term profitability. It involves allocating a certain amount of money, known as a bankroll, specifically for betting. The size of the bankroll should be determined by the bettor’s financial situation and their level of experience in the betting world. Proper bankroll management helps gamblers avoid going broke and enables them to withstand losing streaks, which are a natural part of sports betting. The global sports betting market size was valued at \$85.047 billion in 2020, with the online sports betting market accounting for \$23.958 billion of that. In Nevada, sports betting generated \$301 million in revenue in 2020.

## Asian handicap

Year Market Size (USD Billion) CAGR (%)
2018 53.7 8.5
2019 58.9 9.7
2020 63.5 7.8
2021 71.3 12.2
2022 78.6 10.2

Sports betting models are statistical algorithms used to predict the outcomes of sporting events. One popular type of sports betting model is the Asian handicap. This model originates from Asia and is becoming increasingly popular globally. It levels the playing field, eliminating the possibility of draws by giving the underdog a head start. In this model, the favourite team must win by a specified margin for a bettor to win a bet. The Asian handicap market size was valued at 63.5 billion USD in 2020 and is expected to grow at a rate of 12.2% in 2021.

## Fixed odds betting

Statistic Value Reference
Global sports betting market size \$203 billion Statista
Revenue generated by sports betting in the US \$4.2 billion American Gaming Association
Percentage of sports bets placed on fixed odds markets 80% Global Betting and Gaming Consultants

Fixed odds betting is a type of sports betting model where the odds are set in advance and the bettor places a wager on the outcome of a sporting event. This type of betting is one of the most popular methods of sports betting, with 80% of all sports bets being placed on fixed odds markets. In 2019, the global sports betting market size was valued at \$203 billion, with revenue generated by sports betting in the US alone totaling \$4.2 billion. (References: Statista, American Gaming Association, Global Betting and Gaming Consultants)

## Total bets

 Total bets made 1.4 billion (2019) Estimated global market size \$250 billion (2020) Percentage of sports betting that occurs online 80% (2019)

Sports betting is a form of gambling where individuals place bets on the outcome of sporting events. In 2019, a total of 1.4 billion bets were made worldwide. The global market size for sports betting was estimated to be \$250 billion in 2020. It is estimated that 80% of all sports betting takes place online. Sports betting involves analyzing data and using mathematical models to make predictions. These models take into account factors such as team performance, weather conditions, and player injuries to determine the most likely outcome of a game.

(Source: Statista)

## Moneyline betting

Type of Bet Winning Probability
Moneyline betting 50%

Moneyline betting is a type of sports betting model that requires a bettor to simply choose which team they think will win the game. The odds are based on the probability of the team winning, with the favorite having a negative sign next to their odds and the underdog having a positive sign. In this model, the winning probability for Moneyline betting is 50%. This is a popular form of betting, particularly in sports like basketball and football. It is important to remember that odds can change based on many factors such as injuries, team performance, and weather conditions, but these can be used as a starting point for betting decisions.

## Backtesting

Statistic Value Reference
Global sports betting market size \$203 billion Statista
Number of sports betting websites 2,500+ TopTenBettingSites
Number of states in the US with legal sports betting 30+ ESPN

Sports betting is a lucrative industry with a global market size of \$203 billion, with over 2,500 websites offering betting services. In the United States, legal sports betting is now available in over 30 states. Backtesting is a common practice in sports betting models to evaluate the effectiveness of a strategy. It involves testing a model using past data to see how well it would have performed in actual events. By analyzing historical data, sports betting models can identify profitable strategies and increase the chances of successful betting.

## Sportsbooks

Statistic Value Reference
Global sports betting market size \$203 billion Statista
Projected CAGR of sports betting market 8.8% Grand View Research
Percentage of sports betting conducted online 47% Technavio

Sportsbooks are businesses that facilitate the betting process for sports enthusiasts. Sports betting is a popular form of entertainment, with the global market size estimated at \$203 billion. As online betting gains traction, the industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.8%. In fact, nearly half of sports betting is now conducted online, making it a lucrative market for sportsbooks to tap into.

## In-game betting

Sport Average in-game bets per game % of total bets placed
Football 30 66%
Baseball 8 5%
Hockey 3 3%
Soccer 5 3%

In-game betting is a type of sports betting where bets are placed during a live game. In-game betting has become increasingly popular in recent years, with around 70% of all sports bets being placed through in-game betting. Football is the most popular sport for in-game betting, with an average of 30 bets per game, which accounts for 66% of all in-game bets. Basketball is the second most popular sport for in-game betting, with an average of 15 bets per game, which accounts for 23% of all in-game bets. Baseball, hockey, and soccer are less popular for in-game betting, with an average of 8, 3, and 5 bets per game, respectively. These statistics show that in-game betting is a significant aspect of sports betting and is likely to continue to grow in popularity, particularly for football.

## Futures bets

Year Total Amount Wagered on Futures Bets (in billions USD) Revenue generated from Futures Bets (in millions USD)
2015 4.2 200
2016 4.8 225
2017 5.2 245
2018 5.9 270
2019 6.1 285

Sports betting futures bets are wagers that are placed on events that will happen over an extended period of time. These types of bets can include the winner of a tournament, a division or conference championship, or the overall winner of a sports league. Futures bets are a popular way for sports fans to bet on their favorite teams long before the event takes place. In the United States, the total amount wagered on futures bets has been steadily increasing over the past few years, reaching 6.1 billion USD in 2019. This amount generated 285 million USD in revenue for the sports betting industry.

## Pushes

Year Total Revenue Global Market Share
2017 \$40.2 billion 37%
2018 \$45.8 billion 38%
2019 \$50.0 billion 39%

Sports betting model refers to a system designed to aid bettors in making better-informed decisions when placing bets on sporting events. This model uses various factors such as player statistics, team form, and other relevant data to provide reliable predictions. The global sports betting market has been growing rapidly in recent years, with a total revenue of \$50 billion in 2019 and a global market share of 39%. Pushes can be used as a reference to evaluate the accuracy of a sports betting model’s predictions, and it refers to a result where neither the bettor nor the sportsbook wins or loses.

## Staking plan

 Year Generated Revenue (in billions) 2016 4.5 2017 5.2 2018 6.1 2019 8.5 2020 10.6

Sports betting is a form of gambling that involves predicting the results of a sporting event and placing a wager on the outcome. It has been growing at a rapid pace over the years and has become a billion-dollar industry. A staking plan is an essential component of a successful sports betting model. It refers to the system of selecting and managing the amount of money to be wagered on each bet. A staking plan can be based on various factors like risk tolerance, expected value, and overall bankroll. Several bettors use staking plans to mitigate the risk of losing large sums of money. In the year 2020, the sports betting industry had generated a revenue of 10.6 billion dollars, which is a significant increase from the previous years. (Source: American Gaming Association Annual Report)

## Kelly criterion 2.0

Statistic Value Reference
Total global sports betting market size \$218.5 billion Statista
Expected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of sports betting industry 8.62% BusinessWire
Percentage of sports bets made online 85% Statista

Sports betting is a rapidly growing industry with a total global market size of \$218.5 billion, and an expected CAGR of 8.62%. With the increasing shift towards digital platforms, it’s no surprise that 85% of sports bets are made online. One popular sports betting model is Kelly Criterion 2.0.

## Hedging strategy

 45% of sports bettors use a hedging strategy \$250 average amount bet on hedged bets

A hedging strategy is a common tactic used by sports bettors to mitigate risk and potentially increase profits. According to recent studies, 45% of sports bettors use a hedging strategy when placing bets. This involves placing additional bets in order to balance out potential losses or guarantee a certain level of profit. On average, bettors who use this strategy bet around \$250 on hedged bets. By employing a hedging strategy, sports bettors can increase their chances of winning and minimize the risks associated with placing bets.